Categorical versus graded beliefs

Franz Dietrich (1, 2)

1 PSE - Paris School of Economics
2 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne

This essay discusses the difficulty to reconcile two paradigms about beliefs: the binary or categorical paradigm of yes/no beliefs and the probabilistic paradigm of degrees of belief. The possibility for someone to hold beliefs of both types simultaneously is challenged by the lottery paradox, and more recently by a general impossibility theorem by Dietrich and List. The nature, relevance, and implications of the tension are explained and assessed.

Mots clés: logic vs. rational choice theory; yes/no belief vs. graded belief; subjective probability; belief binarization; lottery paradox; impossibility theorem; binary belief; credence

Domaines: Psychologie; Economies et finances; Psychologie

Franz Dietrich. Categorical versus graded beliefs. Frontiers in Psychology, 2022, 13, pp.817940. ⟨10.3389/fpsyg.2022.817940⟩. ⟨halshs-03615028⟩