Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory
Hippolyte d'Albis
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16845
- IdHAL : hippolyte-dalbis
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6409-4320
- IdRef : 07955279X
Angela Greulich
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 12690
- IdHAL : angela-greulich
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5273-9785
- IdRef : 146767845
Grégory Ponthière
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1129355
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7328-4441
- IdRef : 189782714
Résumé
During the last century, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a Unified Growth Theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for cohorts 1906–1975 of the Human Fertility Database.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory
|
Résumé |
en
During the last century, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a Unified Growth Theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for cohorts 1906–1975 of the Human Fertility Database.
|
Auteur(s) |
Hippolyte d'Albis
1, 2
, Angela Greulich
3, 4
, Grégory Ponthière
1, 2, 5
1
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
2
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 1171428 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
3
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
4
INED -
Institut national d'études démographiques
( 57627 )
- Campus Condorcet
9, cours des Humanités - CS 50004
93322 Aubervilliers Cedex
- France
5
ERUDITE -
Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique
( 74242 )
- UPEM, 5 boulevard Descartes, 77454 Marne-la-Vallée CEDEX 2
UPEC - Faculté de sciences économiques et de gestion
Mail des mèches Rue Poète et Sellier 94010 Créteil Cedex
- France
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2018-09
|
Volume |
177
|
Page/Identifiant |
461 - 494
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Fertility, Childbearing age, Births postponement, Human capital, Regime shift
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.jet.2018.07.004 |
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