Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
G. Marangoni
,
M. Tavoni
,
V. Bosetti
(1)
,
E. Borgonovo
(2)
,
P. Capros
(3)
,
O. Fricko
,
J. Gernaat
,
Céline Guivarch
(4)
,
P. Havlik
(5)
,
D. Huppmann
,
N. Johnson
,
P. Karkatsoulis
,
I. Keppo
(6)
,
V. Krey
(7)
,
E. Ó Broin
(8)
,
J. Price
,
D. P. van Vuuren
(9, 10)
1
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CESifo and Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, Milan
2 DEC and ELEUSI
3 E3MLab - Institute of Communication and Computer Systems
4 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
5 Ecosystem Services and Management
6 UCL Energy Institute
7 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
8 Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg]
9 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
10 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
2 DEC and ELEUSI
3 E3MLab - Institute of Communication and Computer Systems
4 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
5 Ecosystem Services and Management
6 UCL Energy Institute
7 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
8 Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg]
9 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
10 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
G. Marangoni
- Fonction : Auteur
M. Tavoni
- Fonction : Auteur
V. Bosetti
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1082331
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4970-0027
- IdRef : 140320660
O. Fricko
- Fonction : Auteur
J. Gernaat
- Fonction : Auteur
Céline Guivarch
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 14174
- IdHAL : celine-guivarch
- ORCID : 0000-0002-9405-256X
- IdRef : 152290761
D. Huppmann
- Fonction : Auteur
N. Johnson
- Fonction : Auteur
P. Karkatsoulis
- Fonction : Auteur
J. Price
- Fonction : Auteur
Résumé
Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation1. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
|
Résumé |
en
Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation1. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.
|
Auteur(s) |
G. Marangoni
, M. Tavoni
, V. Bosetti
1
, E. Borgonovo
2
, P. Capros
3
, O. Fricko
, J. Gernaat
, Céline Guivarch
4
, P. Havlik
5
, D. Huppmann
, N. Johnson
, P. Karkatsoulis
, I. Keppo
6
, V. Krey
7
, E. Ó Broin
8
, J. Price
, D. P. van Vuuren
9, 10
1
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CESifo and Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, Milan
( 207641 )
- France
2
DEC and ELEUSI
( 188490 )
- Italie
3
E3MLab -
Institute of Communication and Computer Systems
( 471731 )
- Grèce
4
CIRED -
centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
( 135977 )
- 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle - 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex
- France
5
Ecosystem Services and Management
( 466535 )
- Autriche
6
UCL Energy Institute
( 243345 )
- France
7
IIASA -
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
( 487706 )
- Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- Autriche
8
Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg]
( 50877 )
- SE-412 96 Göteborg
- Suède
9
Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
( 300572 )
- Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS Utrecht
- Pays-Bas
10
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
( 306620 )
-
- France
|
Revue du Wos |
Non précisé
|
État de l'article |
paru
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2017-01-16
|
Référence interne |
|
Projet(s) Européen(s) |
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Climate-change mitigation , Socioeconomic scenarios
|
DOI | 10.1038/nclimate3199 |
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