Scrub typhus, an infectious disease caused by a bacterium transmitted by “chigger” mites, constitutes a public health problem in Thailand. Predicting epidemic peaks would allow implementing preventive measures locally. This study analyses the predictability of the time series of incidence of scrub typhus aggregated at the provincial level. After stationarizing the time series, the evaluation of the Hurst exponents indicates the provinces where the epidemiological dynamics present a long memory and are predictable. The predictive performances of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model), ARFIMA (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) and fractional Brownian motion models are evaluated. The results constitute the reference level for the predictability of the incidence data of this zoonosis.
Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand
Résumé
en
Scrub typhus, an infectious disease caused by a bacterium transmitted by “chigger” mites, constitutes a public health problem in Thailand. Predicting epidemic peaks would allow implementing preventive measures locally. This study analyses the predictability of the time series of incidence of scrub typhus aggregated at the provincial level. After stationarizing the time series, the evaluation of the Hurst exponents indicates the provinces where the epidemiological dynamics present a long memory and are predictable. The predictive performances of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model), ARFIMA (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) and fractional Brownian motion models are evaluated. The results constitute the reference level for the predictability of the incidence data of this zoonosis.
1
LISST -
Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Solidarités, Sociétés, Territoires
( 44429 )
- Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès Maison de la Recherche 5 Allées Antonio Machado 31058 TOULOUSE CEDEX 9
- France
École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( 99539 )
;
Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès ( 116256 )
;
Université de Toulouse ( 443875 )
;
École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville ( 301788 )
;
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR5193 ( 441569 )
2
SCELG -
Strathclyde Centre for Environmental Law and Governance (SCELG), Law School, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, United Kingdom
( 1041337 )
- Royaume-Uni
3
INSERM -
Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
( 303623 )
- 101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris
- France
4
LPED -
Laboratoire Population-Environnement-Développement
( 12804 )
- case 103, place Victor Hugo
13331 Marseille Cedex 03
- France
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement UMR_D151 ( 67872 )
;
Sciences de l'environnement/Environnement et Société
Projet(s) ANR
Scénarios de la santé en Asie du Sud-Est: changements d'utilisation des terres, changement climatique et maladies infectieuses
[En savoir plus]
FutureHealthSEA -
ANR-17-CE35-0003
AAPG2017
- 2017
Valeria Bondarenko, Pierre Mazzega, Claire Lajaunie. Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand. Engineering Proceedings, 2021, 5 (1), pp.44. ⟨10.3390/engproc2021005044⟩. ⟨halshs-03290702⟩