How do inequalities affect the natural interest rate, and how do they impact monetary policy? Comparing Germany, Japan and the US

Mariam Camarero (1, 2) , Gilles Dufrénot (3) , Cecilio Tamarit (4)

1 University Jaume I
2 INTECO - Grupo de Investigacion en Integracion Economica
3 AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
4 Department of Applied Economics II, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, Valencia 46022

In this paper we analyze how growing income/wealth inequality and the functional income distribution inequality have contributed to the sustained low potential growth observed in the industrialized economies during the last two decades, a period that includes the Great Recession (GR). Growing inequality may constitute a drawback for the recovery of these economies, especially after the Great Pandemic (GP). To this aim, we modify the semi-structural model originally proposed by Holston, Laubach and William, by considering the effects of several types of inequalities. We jointly estimate potential growth and the natural interest rates. We show that the latter can substantially modify the time path of the real interest rate that prevails when economies are at full strength and inflation is stable.

Mots clés: potential growth; inequality; natural interest rate; G7; state-space model

Domaines: Economies et finances

Mariam Camarero, Gilles Dufrénot, Cecilio Tamarit. How do inequalities affect the natural interest rate, and how do they impact monetary policy? Comparing Germany, Japan and the US. 2021. ⟨halshs-03191667⟩