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The Acceleration Index as a Test-Controlled Reproduction Number: Application to COVID-19 in France

Abstract : We show that the acceleration index, a novel indicator that measures acceleration and deceleration of viral spread (Baunez et al. 2020a,b), is essentially a test-controlled version of the reproduction number. As such it is a more accurate indicator to track the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak in real time. We indicate a discrepancy between the acceleration index and the reproduction number, based on the infectivity and test rates and we provide a formal decomposition of this difference. When applied to French data for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, our decomposition shows that the reproduction number consistently underestimates the resurgence of the pandemic since the summer of 2020, compared to the acceleration index which accounts for the time-varying volume of tests. Because the acceleration index aggregates all the relevant information and captures in real time the sizeable time variation featured by viral circulation, it is a sufficient statistic to track the pandemic’s propagation.
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Preprints, Working Papers, ...
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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-03079490
Contributor : Elisabeth Lhuillier <>
Submitted on : Thursday, December 17, 2020 - 11:27:02 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, June 15, 2021 - 2:57:15 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, March 18, 2021 - 7:00:26 PM

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WP 2020 - Nr 45.pdf
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  • HAL Id : halshs-03079490, version 1

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Christelle Baunez, Mickael Degoulet, Stéphane Luchini, Matteo L. Pintus, Patrick A. Pintus, et al.. The Acceleration Index as a Test-Controlled Reproduction Number: Application to COVID-19 in France. 2020. ⟨halshs-03079490⟩

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