Climate change and population: an assessment of mortality due to health impacts
Antonin Pottier
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1251
- IdHAL : antoninpottier
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2890-9585
- IdRef : 176339442
Marc Fleurbaey
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 741339
- IdHAL : marc-fleurbaey
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5342-8065
- IdRef : 029286719
Aurélie Méjean
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16363
- IdHAL : aurelie-mejean
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2859-3613
Stéphane Zuber
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 5100
- IdHAL : szuber
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4111-2397
- IdRef : 196910498
Résumé
We develop a model of population dynamics accounting for the impact of climate change on mortality through ve channels (heat, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, dengue, undernutrition). An age-dependent mortality, which depends on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three climate scenarios (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6) and find that the five risks induce deaths in the range from 135,000 per annum (in the near term) to 280,000 per annum (at the end of the century) in the RCP 6.0 scenario. We examine the number of life-years lost due to the five selected risks and find figures ranging from 4 to 9 million annually. These numbers are too low to impact the aggregate dynamics but they have interesting evolution patterns. The number of life-years lost is constant (RCP 6.0) or decreases over time (RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6). For the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios, we find that the number of life-years lost is higher today than in 2100, due to improvements in generic mortality conditions, the bias of those improvements towards the young, and an ageing population. From that perspective, the present generation is found to bear the brunt of the considered climate change impacts.
Format du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Autre publication scientifique |
Titre |
en
Climate change and population: an assessment of mortality due to health impacts
|
Résumé |
en
We develop a model of population dynamics accounting for the impact of climate change on mortality through ve channels (heat, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, dengue, undernutrition). An age-dependent mortality, which depends on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three climate scenarios (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6) and find that the five risks induce deaths in the range from 135,000 per annum (in the near term) to 280,000 per annum (at the end of the century) in the RCP 6.0 scenario. We examine the number of life-years lost due to the five selected risks and find figures ranging from 4 to 9 million annually. These numbers are too low to impact the aggregate dynamics but they have interesting evolution patterns. The number of life-years lost is constant (RCP 6.0) or decreases over time (RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6). For the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios, we find that the number of life-years lost is higher today than in 2100, due to improvements in generic mortality conditions, the bias of those improvements towards the young, and an ageing population. From that perspective, the present generation is found to bear the brunt of the considered climate change impacts.
|
Auteur(s) |
Antonin Pottier
1
, Marc Fleurbaey
2, 3
, Aurélie Méjean
1
, Stéphane Zuber
2, 4, 3
1
CIRED -
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
( 1042364 )
- 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle - 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex
- France
2
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
3
CNRS -
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
( 441569 )
- France
4
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2020-12-09
|
Volume |
183
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Numéro d'article |
|
Licence |
Paternité
|
Description |
Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2020.29 - ISSN : 1955-611X
|
Commentaire |
URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr/publications/
Voir aussi l'article basé sur ce document de travail paru dans "Ecological Economics", 183, 2021, 106967 |
Éditeur scientifique |
|
Référence interne |
|
Projet(s) ANR |
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Voir aussi |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Climate change, Endogenous population, Impacts, Integrated assessment model, Mortality risk
|
Origine :
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...