Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change
Aurélie Méjean
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16363
- IdHAL : aurelie-mejean
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2859-3613
Antonin Pottier
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1251
- IdHAL : antoninpottier
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2890-9585
- IdRef : 176339442
Stéphane Zuber
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 5100
- IdHAL : szuber
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4111-2397
- IdRef : 196910498
Marc Fleurbaey
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 741339
- IdHAL : marc-fleurbaey
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5342-8065
- IdRef : 029286719
Résumé
Climate change raises the issue of intergenerational equity. As climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts, possibly leading to extinction, the most relevant trade-off may not be between present and future consumption, but between present consumption and the mere existence of future generations. To investigate this trade-off, we build an integrated assessment model that explicity accounts for the risk of extinction of future generations. We compare different climate policies, which change the probability of catastrophic outcomes yielding an early extinction, within the class of variable population utilitarian social welfare functions. We show that the risk of extinction is the main driver of the preferred policy over climate damages. We analyze the role of inequality aversion and population ethics. Usually a preference for large populations and a low inequality aversion favour the most ambitious climate policy, although there are cases where the effect of inequality aversion is reversed.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Pré-publication, Document de travail |
Titre |
en
Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change
|
Résumé |
en
Climate change raises the issue of intergenerational equity. As climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts, possibly leading to extinction, the most relevant trade-off may not be between present and future consumption, but between present consumption and the mere existence of future generations. To investigate this trade-off, we build an integrated assessment model that explicity accounts for the risk of extinction of future generations. We compare different climate policies, which change the probability of catastrophic outcomes yielding an early extinction, within the class of variable population utilitarian social welfare functions. We show that the risk of extinction is the main driver of the preferred policy over climate damages. We analyze the role of inequality aversion and population ethics. Usually a preference for large populations and a low inequality aversion favour the most ambitious climate policy, although there are cases where the effect of inequality aversion is reversed.
|
Auteur(s) |
Aurélie Méjean
1
, Antonin Pottier
2
, Stéphane Zuber
3, 4
, Marc Fleurbaey
3, 4
1
CIRED -
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
( 1042364 )
- 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle - 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex
- France
2
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
3
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
4
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 578027 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
|
Volume |
163
|
Page/Identifiant |
873-890
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2020
|
Projet(s) ANR |
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Climate change, Catastrophic risk, Equity, Population, Climate-economy model
|
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