Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Preprints, Working Papers, ...

An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-down on Virus Propagation in France

Abstract : This note provides an early assessment of the reinforced measures to curb the COVID-19 pandemic in France, which include a curfew of selected areas and culminate in a second COVID-19-related lock-down that started on October 30, 2020 and is still ongoing. We analyse the change in virus propagation across age groups and across départements using an acceleration index introduced in Baunez et al. (2020). We find that while the pandemic is still in the acceleration regime, acceleration decreased notably with curfew measures and this more rapidly so for the more vulnerable population group, that is, for people older than 60. Acceleration continued to decline under lock-down, but more so for the active population under 60 than for those above 60. For the youngest population aged 0 to 19, curfew measures did not reduce acceleration but lock-down does. This suggests that if health policies aim at protecting the elderly population generally more at risk to suffer severe consequences from COVID-19, curfew measures may be effective enough. However, looking at the departmental map of France, we find that curfews have not necessarily been imposed in départements where acceleration was the largest.
Document type :
Preprints, Working Papers, ...
Complete list of metadata

Cited literature [4 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-03002354
Contributor : Elisabeth Lhuillier <>
Submitted on : Thursday, November 12, 2020 - 5:59:27 PM
Last modification on : Monday, March 29, 2021 - 2:46:29 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Saturday, February 13, 2021 - 8:19:49 PM

File

WP 2020 - Nr 36.pdf
Files produced by the author(s)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : halshs-03002354, version 1

Collections

Citation

Christelle Baunez, Mickael Degoulet, Stéphane Luchini, Patrick Pintus, Miriam Teschl. An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-down on Virus Propagation in France. 2020. ⟨halshs-03002354⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

413

Files downloads

202