Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century

Gilles Dufrénot (1) , Meryem Rhouzlane (1)

1 AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques

This paper attempts to provide an overview of the main challenges facing industrialized in a context of secular stagnation. There is no consensus on the meaning of this concept and various alternative views coexist. We present the key issues in the debates today, accounting for phenomena like the slowdown in factor productivity, liquidity and safety traps, the decline of natural interest rates, the historical downward trend of potential growths and low inflation rates. We provide a bird’s eye survey of the available literature on the causes of secular stagnation from a historical perspective, the symptoms, the main causes as well as some policies proposed to overcome it. We give some illustrations for the United Kingdom, the United States, the euro area and Japan.

Mots clés: secular stagnation; natural interest rates; history; industrialized countries

Domaines: Economies et finances

Gilles Dufrénot, Meryem Rhouzlane. Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century. 2018. ⟨halshs-01821669⟩