Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda
David Tucket
(1)
,
Antoine Mandel
(2, 3)
,
Diana Mangalagiu
(4)
,
Allen Abramson
(1)
,
Jochen Hinkel
,
Konstantinos Katsikopoulos
,
Alan Kirman
(5)
,
Thierry Malleret
,
Igor Mozetic
(6)
,
Paul Ormerod
(1)
,
Robert Elliot Smith
(1)
,
Tommaso Venturini
(7)
,
Angela Wilkinson
(8)
1
UCL -
University College of London [London]
2 PSE - Paris School of Economics
3 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
4 RMS - Reims Management School
5 GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille
6 IJS - Jozef Stefan Institute [Ljubljana]
7 médialab - médialab (Sciences Po)
8 OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
2 PSE - Paris School of Economics
3 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
4 RMS - Reims Management School
5 GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille
6 IJS - Jozef Stefan Institute [Ljubljana]
7 médialab - médialab (Sciences Po)
8 OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Antoine Mandel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 13007
- IdHAL : antoine-mandel
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7180-950X
- IdRef : 117013714
Jochen Hinkel
- Fonction : Auteur
Konstantinos Katsikopoulos
- Fonction : Auteur
Thierry Malleret
- Fonction : Auteur
Tommaso Venturini
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16771
- IdHAL : tommaso-venturini
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0004-5308
- IdRef : 184040167
Résumé
The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic “idealized” modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodologies that account for how human (sentient) actors often manage uncertain situations “well enough.” Some possibly helpful methodologies, drawing on digital science, focus on the role of emotions in determining people’s choices; others examine how people construct narratives that enable them to act; still others combine qualitative with quantitative data.
Format du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda
|
Résumé |
en
The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic “idealized” modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodologies that account for how human (sentient) actors often manage uncertain situations “well enough.” Some possibly helpful methodologies, drawing on digital science, focus on the role of emotions in determining people’s choices; others examine how people construct narratives that enable them to act; still others combine qualitative with quantitative data.
|
Auteur(s) |
David Tucket
1
, Antoine Mandel
2, 3
, Diana Mangalagiu
4
, Allen Abramson
1
, Jochen Hinkel
, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos
, Alan Kirman
5
, Thierry Malleret
, Igor Mozetic
6
, Paul Ormerod
1
, Robert Elliot Smith
1
, Tommaso Venturini
7
, Angela Wilkinson
8
1
UCL -
University College of London [London]
( 300875 )
- Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT
- Royaume-Uni
2
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
3
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
4
RMS -
Reims Management School
( 29241 )
- 59, rue Taittinger - 51100 Reims
- France
5
GREQAM -
Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille
( 199934 )
- Centre de la Vieille Charité, 2 rue de la Charité, 13236 Marseille cedex 02
- France
6
IJS -
Jozef Stefan Institute [Ljubljana]
( 451147 )
- Jamova cesta 39, 1000 Ljubljana Slovenia
- Slovénie
7
médialab -
médialab (Sciences Po)
( 394361 )
- 27 rue Saint-Guillaume - 75337 Paris Cedex 07
- France
8
OCDE -
Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
( 310903 )
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
2, rue André Pascal 75775 Paris Cedex 16
- France
|
Numéro |
2
|
Volume |
27
|
Page/Identifiant |
213 - 242
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Date de production/écriture |
2015-01-01
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Non spécifiée
|
Date de publication |
2015
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Projet(s) ANR |
|
Financement |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Decision Science, Uncertainty, Policy-making
|
DOI | 10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078 |
Spire (Sciences Po) | 2441/5c8325hd09kgaeaka7s4fr0rq |
Fichier principal
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)
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