The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database

Céline Guivarch; Julie Rozenberg; Vanessa Schweizer

The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database

Céline Guivarch ¹ Julie Rozenberg ¹ Vanessa Schweizer ²

1 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement

Abstract : The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that a diversity of socio-economic pathways can lead to the same radiative forcing, and therefore that a given level of radiative forcing can have very different socio-economic impacts. We propose a methodology that implements a “scenario discovery” cluster analysis and systematically identifies diverse groups of scenarios that share common outcomes among a database of socio-economic scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology with two examples using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways framework. We find that high emissions scenarios can be associated with either high or low per capita GDP growth, and that high productivity growth and catch-up are not necessarily associated with high per capita GDP and high emissions.

Keywords : Database Scenario discovery Emissions scenarios Socioeconomic pathways Diversity

Document type :

Journal articles

Domain :

Humanities and Social Sciences / Economies and finances

Humanities and Social Sciences / Environmental studies

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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01292901
Contributor : Céline Guivarch <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, April 17, 2018 - 9:19:50 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 9, 2019 - 11:26:12 AM

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The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database

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