The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database

Céline Guivarch 1 Julie Rozenberg 1 Vanessa Schweizer 2
1 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
2 University of Waterloo [Waterloo]
Abstract : The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that a diversity of socio-economic pathways can lead to the same radiative forcing, and therefore that a given level of radiative forcing can have very different socio-economic impacts. We propose a methodology that implements a “scenario discovery” cluster analysis and systematically identifies diverse groups of scenarios that share common outcomes among a database of socio-economic scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology with two examples using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways framework. We find that high emissions scenarios can be associated with either high or low per capita GDP growth, and that high productivity growth and catch-up are not necessarily associated with high per capita GDP and high emissions.
Keywords : Database Scenario discovery Emissions scenarios Socioeconomic pathways Diversity
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Céline Guivarch, Julie Rozenberg, Vanessa Schweizer. The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling and Software, Elsevier, 2016, 80, pp.336-363. ⟨10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.006⟩. ⟨halshs-01292901⟩

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