The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database

Abstract : The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that a diversity of socio-economic pathways can lead to the same radiative forcing, and therefore that a given level of radiative forcing can have very different socio-economic impacts. We propose a methodology that implements a “scenario discovery” cluster analysis and systematically identifies diverse groups of scenarios that share common outcomes among a database of socio-economic scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology with two examples using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways framework. We find that high emissions scenarios can be associated with either high or low per capita GDP growth, and that high productivity growth and catch-up are not necessarily associated with high per capita GDP and high emissions.
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [37 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01292901
Contributor : Céline Guivarch <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, April 17, 2018 - 9:19:50 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 9, 2019 - 11:26:12 AM

File

Guivarch et al_2016_diversity ...
Files produced by the author(s)

Identifiers

Citation

Céline Guivarch, Julie Rozenberg, Vanessa Schweizer. The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling and Software, Elsevier, 2016, 80, pp.336-363. ⟨10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.006⟩. ⟨halshs-01292901⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

400

Files downloads

331