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The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database
Abstract : The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that a diversity of socio-economic pathways can lead to the same radiative forcing, and therefore that a given level of radiative forcing can have very different socio-economic impacts. We propose a methodology that implements a “scenario discovery” cluster analysis and systematically identifies diverse groups of scenarios that share common outcomes among a database of socio-economic scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology with two examples using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways framework. We find that high emissions scenarios can be associated with either high or low per capita GDP growth, and that high productivity growth and catch-up are not necessarily associated with high per capita GDP and high emissions.
Cited literature [37 references]
https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01292901
Contributor : Céline Guivarch <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, April 17, 2018 - 9:19:50 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, February 11, 2020 - 10:10:35 AM
Contributor : Céline Guivarch <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, April 17, 2018 - 9:19:50 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, February 11, 2020 - 10:10:35 AM
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