Impact potentiel du changement climatique sur les sécheresses pédologiques en Bretagne au 21eme siècle.

Abstract : In the past, Brittany have been affected by intense droughts. These droughts have had heavy impacts on important socio-economical activities for the economy of the region, such as agriculture. In a climate change context it seems important to evaluate the possible ways of evolution of that risk at a territory scale. These evolutions have been studied by using climate simulations from three IPCC's scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. In order to monitor pedological droughts which can affect agriculture, a soil water balance have been processed to calculate a drought index: the evaporation deficit. Results revealed an increase of drought intensity during the 21st century, more specifically in the eastern part of the region. The south coastline would be the most sensitive area in terms of droughts' intensity and frequency. In that area a similar intensity as the one measured during the 1976 drought, other things being equal, would be frequently reached and surpass. Exceptional past droughts could become common in the future, impacting both agriculture and water cycle. This could cause a decreasing in runoff which supplies tertiary aquifers and wetlands.
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Journal articles
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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01020211
Contributor : Vincent Dubreuil <>
Submitted on : Monday, July 7, 2014 - 10:06:43 PM
Last modification on : Friday, July 5, 2019 - 12:42:03 PM

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  • HAL Id : halshs-01020211, version 1

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Chloé Lamy, Vincent Dubreuil. Impact potentiel du changement climatique sur les sécheresses pédologiques en Bretagne au 21eme siècle.. Climatologie, Association internationale de climatologie, 2013, 10, pp.107-121. ⟨halshs-01020211⟩

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