On the Risk Comovements between the Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates

Gilles de Truchis (1) , Benjamin Keddad (1)

1 GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille

This article examines the volatility dependence between the crude oil price and four US dollar exchange rates using both fractional cointegration and copula techniques. The former exploits the long memory behavior of the volatility processes to investigate whether they are tied through a common long-run equilibrium. The latter is complementary as it allows to explore whether the volatility of the markets are linked in the short run. The cointegration results conclude in favor of long-run independence for the Canadian and Japan exchange rates while few evidence of long-run dependence are found for the European and British exchange rates. Concerning the copula analysis, we conclude in favor of weak dependence when we consider static copulas. Considering time-varying copulas, it appears that dependence is sensitive to market conditions as we found increasing linkages just before the 2008 market collapse and more recently, in the aftermath of the European debt crisis.

Mots clés: comovement; volatility linkage; fractional cointegration; copula; oil market; exchange rate

Domaines: Economies et finances

Gilles de Truchis, Benjamin Keddad. On the Risk Comovements between the Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates. 2014. ⟨halshs-00999225⟩