Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern European countries: Dynamics of asymmetric shocks

Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand (1)

1 GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique

In this work, we use the VAR and space-state methodology to analyze how the recent developments in 20 European countries have modified the dynamics of structural shocks. Our results confirm a visible progress in (predominated output fluctuations) supply shocks convergence between the CEECs and the euro zone, but also corroborate a positive initial impact of EMU creation and EU enlargement supply shocks correlation. In particular, we find that Croatia, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia are good candidates to the euro adoption under condition of greater fiscal policy alignment.

Keywords: Structural Shocks; CEECs; VAR model; Kalman filter; Euro Adoption

Domains: Economics and Finance

Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand. Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern European countries: Dynamics of asymmetric shocks. 2009. ⟨halshs-00407675⟩