Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade
Vassilis Daioglou
(1)
,
Matteo Muratori
(2)
,
Patrick Lamers
(2)
,
Shinichiro Fujimori
(3)
,
Alban Kitous
(4)
,
Alexandre Köberle
(5)
,
Nico Bauer
(6)
,
Martin Junginger
(7)
,
Etsushi Kato
(8)
,
Florian Leblanc
(9, 10)
,
Silvana Mima
(11)
,
Marshal Wise
(12)
,
Detlef van Vuuren
(1)
1
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
2 Dipartimento di Matematica, "Francesco Brioschi"
3 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
4 Enerdata
5 UNIRIO - Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
6 PIK - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
7 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
8 TITECH - Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo]
9 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
10 Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés
11 GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble
12 Joint Global Change Research Institute
2 Dipartimento di Matematica, "Francesco Brioschi"
3 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
4 Enerdata
5 UNIRIO - Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
6 PIK - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
7 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
8 TITECH - Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo]
9 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
10 Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés
11 GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble
12 Joint Global Change Research Institute
Vassilis Daioglou
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 792686
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6028-352X
Matteo Muratori
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 977287
Shinichiro Fujimori
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 779782
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7897-1796
Alexandre Köberle
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 805614
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0328-4750
Nico Bauer
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 771519
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0211-4162
Etsushi Kato
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 776410
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8814-804X
Florian Leblanc
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 8189
- IdHAL : florian-leblanc
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9154-5847
Silvana Mima
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 3529
- IdHAL : silvana-mima
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0336-987X
Detlef van Vuuren
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 770580
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0398-2831
- IdRef : 200058126
Résumé
Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade
|
Résumé |
en
Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.
|
Auteur(s) |
Vassilis Daioglou
1
, Matteo Muratori
2
, Patrick Lamers
2
, Shinichiro Fujimori
3
, Alban Kitous
4
, Alexandre Köberle
5
, Nico Bauer
6
, Martin Junginger
7
, Etsushi Kato
8
, Florian Leblanc
9, 10
, Silvana Mima
11
, Marshal Wise
12
, Detlef van Vuuren
1
1
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
( 243351 )
- Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, 2594 AV The Hague
- Pays-Bas
2
Dipartimento di Matematica, "Francesco Brioschi"
( 5836 )
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, 20 133, Milano ITALY
- Italie
3
NIES -
National Institute for Environmental Studies
( 98417 )
- Tsukuba, Ibaraki
- Japon
4
Enerdata
( 9962 )
- 47 avenue Alsace Lorraine
38000 Grenoble
- France
5
UNIRIO -
Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
( 520745 )
- avenidad Pasteur, Pasteur, 296 - Urca - Cep 22290-240, Rio de Janeiro
- Brésil
6
PIK -
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
( 315475 )
- Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam
- Allemagne
7
Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
( 300572 )
- Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS Utrecht
- Pays-Bas
8
TITECH -
Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo]
( 233179 )
- 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 152-8550
- Japon
9
CIRED -
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
( 1042364 )
- 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle - 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex
- France
10
Cirad-ES -
Département Environnements et Sociétés
( 420902 )
- Campus international de Baillarguet TA C-DIR / B 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5 France
- France
11
GAEL -
Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble
( 1043256 )
- Domaine Universitaire - BATEG, 1241 rue des Résidences
38400 St Martin d'Hères
- France
12
Joint Global Change Research Institute
( 184336 )
- 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500,
College Park, MD 20740
- États-Unis
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Volume |
163
|
Numéro |
3
|
Page/Identifiant |
1639-1658
|
Date de publication |
2020-12
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Collaboration/Projet |
|
Référence interne |
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Bioenergy trade, Climate policy, Energy security, Scenario analysis, Integrated assessment models, EMF
|
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-020-02877-1 |
UT key WOS | 000576628000002 |
Origine :
Publication financée par une institution
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