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Stratégie de change et intégration internationale: spécificité et soutenabilité du Currency Board de Djibouti

Abstract : The goal of this thesis is to study the specificity and sustainability of the Djibouti Currency Board. For this, we will proceed in two steps. First, we will study the specificity of the Djibouti monetary regime, based on the Currency Board, compared to other contemporary monetary experiences. Its peculiarity stems from the fact that the Djiboutian monetary system is based on credible commitments that conform to orthodox canons, which is not the case for all modern currency boards. This is verified for the Board of Djibouti by the absence of discretionary monetary instruments. Also, we insist upon this contrast by its longevity with contemporary monetary arrangements. Since its introduction in 1949, the Board of Djibouti has not been concerned about its ability to operate. Building upon our first observation, for our second step, we work to identify the conditions of success of the Board of Djibouti, including the factors of sustainability linked to this monetary regime. This thesis demonstrates that the sustainability of this monetary regime, as the oldest currency board in the world, is based on regional and international integration. It also states that the characteristics of the economy are one of the main factors in its success. Finally, the thesis highlights that the internal and external imbalances of the economy pose the risk of dropping the Djibouti franc to the US dollar. The weakness of the banking system, the quality of institutions, and overvalued exchange rates are signals of a debt crisis. The increasing use of external debt highlights the government's inability to reconcile rigorous public debt management with restrictive monetary policy. The amount and structure of public and external indebtedness on one hand, and the imbalance of the exchange rate on the other, are sources of uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of this monetary regime. In the absence of discretionary room for maneuver, the credibility and sustainability of the monetary regime depend on the government's ability to address these macroeconomic imbalances.
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Submitted on : Monday, December 14, 2020 - 10:44:55 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, December 15, 2020 - 3:54:06 AM

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  • HAL Id : tel-03063179, version 1

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Houmed Mohamed. Stratégie de change et intégration internationale: spécificité et soutenabilité du Currency Board de Djibouti. Economies et finances. Université de Grenoble Alpes, 2018. Français. ⟨tel-03063179⟩

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