Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Preprints, Working Papers, ...

Jan Tinbergen's early contribution to macrodynamics (1932-1936): multiple equilibria, complete collapse and the Great Depression

Abstract : In 1932, Jan Tinbergen proposed an explanation of the Great Depression based on a specific treatment of unstable processes and multiple equilibria. While he outlined a possible mechanism based on a specific treatment of firms' interactions, this first explanation was later abandoned in favor of more dynamic mechanisms, but he did not cast aside the idea of multiple equilibria and instability. After his involvement in the early meetings of the econometric society, he started working on different dynamic models that would account for this instability. In 1934, Tinbergen built a model to generate new types of economic movements that did not return to an equilibrium. This led him in 1936 to consider the possibility of having two equilibria, one stable, one unstable, with damped or self-sustained cycles around the high equilibrium and a collapse once the economy reaches the low equilibrium. Tinbergen saw these models, with reference to Fisher's 1933 classic Econometrica paper, as a way to interpret the potential of a crisis to trigger the collapse of the economy. At the end of the day, it turns out that Tinbergen managed to open a new avenue of research which, strikingly, remains almost totally ignored in most history of macroeconomics and econometrics.
Complete list of metadata

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-03087375
Contributor : Vincent Carret Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, December 23, 2020 - 6:07:28 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, March 23, 2021 - 1:52:04 PM

File

Assous and Carret - 2020 - Tin...
Files produced by the author(s)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : halshs-03087375, version 1

Citation

Michaël Assous, Vincent Carret. Jan Tinbergen's early contribution to macrodynamics (1932-1936): multiple equilibria, complete collapse and the Great Depression. 2020. ⟨halshs-03087375⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

260

Files downloads

175