This paper presents a first model integrating the relation between biodiversity loss and zoonotic pandemic risks in a general equilibrium dynamic economic set-up. The occurrence of pandemics is modeled as Poissonian leaps in economic variables. The planner can intervene in the economic and epidemiological dynamics in two ways: first (prevention), by deciding to conserve a greater quantity of biodiversity to decrease the probability of a pandemic occurring, and second (mitigation), by reducing the death toll through a lockdown policy, with the collateral effect of affecting negatively labor productivity. The policy is evaluated using a social welfare function embodying society’s risk aversion, aversion to fluctuations, degree of impatience and altruism towards future generations. The model is explicitly solved and the optimal policy described. The dependence of the optimal policy on natural, productivity and preference parameters is discussed. In particular the optimal lockdown is more severe in societies valuing more human life, and the optimal biodiversity conservation is larger for more “forward looking” societies, with a small discount rate and a high degree of altruism towards future generations. Moreover, societies accepting a large welfare loss to mitigate the pandemics are also societies doing a lot of prevention. After calibrating the model with COVID-19 pandemic data we compare the mitigation efforts predicted by the model with those of the recent literature and we study the optimal prevention–mitigation policy mix.
This paper presents a first model integrating the relation between biodiversity loss and zoonotic pandemic risks in a general equilibrium dynamic economic set-up. The occurrence of pandemics is modeled as Poissonian leaps in economic variables. The planner can intervene in the economic and epidemiological dynamics in two ways: first (prevention), by deciding to conserve a greater quantity of biodiversity to decrease the probability of a pandemic occurring, and second (mitigation), by reducing the death toll through a lockdown policy, with the collateral effect of affecting negatively labor productivity. The policy is evaluated using a social welfare function embodying society’s risk aversion, aversion to fluctuations, degree of impatience and altruism towards future generations. The model is explicitly solved and the optimal policy described. The dependence of the optimal policy on natural, productivity and preference parameters is discussed. In particular the optimal lockdown is more severe in societies valuing more human life, and the optimal biodiversity conservation is larger for more “forward looking” societies, with a small discount rate and a high degree of altruism towards future generations. Moreover, societies accepting a large welfare loss to mitigate the pandemics are also societies doing a lot of prevention. After calibrating the model with COVID-19 pandemic data we compare the mitigation efforts predicted by the model with those of the recent literature and we study the optimal prevention–mitigation policy mix.
Titre
en
Prevention and Mitigation of Epidemics: Biodiversity Conservation and Confinement Policies
Auteur(s)
Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron1
, Giorgio Fabbri2
, Katheline Schubert3, 4
1
GREThA -
Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée
( 27589 )
- Avenue Léon Duguit 33608 PESSAC
- France
Université de Bordeaux ( 259761 )
;
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR5113 ( 441569 )
2
GAEL -
Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble
( 1043256 )
- Domaine Universitaire - BATEG, 1241 rue des Résidences
38400 St Martin d'Hères
- France
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR 5313 ( 441569 )
;
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement UMR 1215 ( 577435 )
;
Université Grenoble Alpes ( 1042703 )
;
Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology ( 1043329 )
;
Université Grenoble Alpes ( 1042703 )
3
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne ( 7550 )
;
École normale supérieure - Paris ( 59704 )
;
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
;
École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( 99539 )
;
École des Ponts ParisTech ( 301545 )
;
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( 441569 )
;
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement ( 577435 )
4
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 578027 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne UMR8545 ( 7550 )
;
École normale supérieure - Paris ( 59704 )
;
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
;
École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( 99539 )
;
École des Ponts ParisTech ( 301545 )
;
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( 441569 )
;
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement UMR1393 ( 577435 )
Langue du document
Anglais
Nom de la revue
Journal of Mathematical Economics
(ISSN : 0304-4068)
Publié par Elsevier
Revue non référencée dans Sherpa-Romeo
Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, Giorgio Fabbri, Katheline Schubert. Prevention and Mitigation of Epidemics: Biodiversity Conservation and Confinement Policies. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2021, 93, ⟨10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102484⟩. ⟨halshs-03038974v2⟩