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A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France

Abstract : Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labour market. A 1999 rise in the French layoff tax paid by large private firms when they laid off older workers made younger workers less secure; this insecurity reduced their fertility by 3.7 percentage points (with a 95% confidence interval between 0.7 and 6.6 percentage points). Reduced fertility is only found at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.
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Contributor : Caroline Bauer <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, October 20, 2020 - 7:36:53 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, January 19, 2021 - 11:09:09 AM

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Andrew E. Clark, Anthony Lepinteur. A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France. Review of Economics and Statistics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press (MIT Press), inPress, pp.1-47. ⟨10.1162/rest_a_00964⟩. ⟨halshs-02973086⟩



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