Growth factors in developed countries: A 1960-2019 growth accounting decomposition

Gilbert Cette (1, 2) , Aurélien Devillard (2) , Vincenzo Spiezia (3)

1 BDF - banque de france
2 AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
3 OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Using a new and original database, our paper contributes to the growth accounting literature with three original aspects: first, it covers a long period from the early 60's to 2019, just before the COVID-19 crisis; second, it analyses at the country level a large set of economies (30); finally, it singles out the growth contribution of ICTs but also of robots. The original database used in our analysis covers 30 developed countries and the Euro Area over a long period allowing to develop a growth accounting approach from 1960 to 2019. This database is built at the country level. Our growth accounting approach shows that the main drivers of labor productivity growth over the whole 1960-2019 period appear to be TFP, non-ICT and non-robot capital deepening, and education. The overall contribution of ICT capital is found to be small, although we do not estimate its effect on TFP. The contribution of robots to productivity growth through the two channels (capital deepening and TFP) appears to be significant in Germany and Japan in the sub-period 1975-1995, in France and Italy in 1995-2005, and in several Eastern European countries in 2005-2019. Our findings confirm also the slowdown in TFP in most countries from at least 1995 onwards. This slowdown is mainly explained by a decrease of the contributions of the components 'others' in the capital deepening and the TFP productivity channels.

Mots clés: Growth; Productivity; ICTs; Robots

Domaines: Economies et finances

Gilbert Cette, Aurélien Devillard, Vincenzo Spiezia. Growth factors in developed countries: A 1960-2019 growth accounting decomposition. 2020. ⟨halshs-02958226⟩