The macroeconomic determinants of COVID-19 mortality rate and the role of post subprime crisis decisions

Olivier Damette (1) , Stéphane Goutte (2)

1 BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée
2 Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités

We investigate, for the first time, the empirical drivers of the Covid-19 crosscountry mortality rates at a macroeconomic level. The intensity of the pandemic (number of infected people), the demographic structure (proportion of people age 65 or above) and the openness degree (number of tourists arrivals) seem to be significant predictors in addition to health infrastructures (number of hospital beds, physicians). We also find that the subprime crisis and the austerity policies conducted in certain countries, by reducing the public health expenditures in the last ten years and altering the adaptation capacity of the health system, have probably intensified the tragic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. Pollution seems to have only played a marginal role as well as control strategies (travel restrictions, testing policy). We do not find consistent effects against the Covid-19 virus due to past exposal to other types of epidemics like Malaria or Tuberculosis.

Mots clés: Covid-19 pandemic; Fatalities; Macroeconomic drivers; Health infrastructure; Health spending; Covid-19 control strategies; Pollution; Immunity; Austerity policies

Domaines: Economies et finances; Démographie; Etudes de l'environnement; Géographie; Méthodes et statistiques

Olivier Damette, Stéphane Goutte. The macroeconomic determinants of COVID-19 mortality rate and the role of post subprime crisis decisions. 2020. ⟨halshs-02620834⟩