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Prospective des migrations internationales à l’horizon 2050

Abstract : Forecasting international migration up to 2050, like all forecasting, first of all calls for a careful analysis of the initial characteristics of the phenomenon. To this end, a first part highlights the plural reality of international migration in its quantitative dimension and in its causalities combining push and pull factors, which leads to a dual and complex geography. The second part analyses the various major trends, highlighting in particular the certainty of the sustainability of traditional migration factors and the importance of the unprecedented process of "diasporisation". Then the possible political, economic and demographic ruptures are studied. The prospective work leads to a third part calling for transparent, simple and supportive migration policies in the world in terms of governance, in Europe in terms of its regulation and in France in terms of immigration-asylum-citizenship.
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Contributor : Gérard-François Dumont <>
Submitted on : Sunday, May 24, 2020 - 6:01:06 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, February 25, 2021 - 9:43:36 AM


  • HAL Id : halshs-02616445, version 1


Gérard-François Dumont, Alain Bravo. Prospective des migrations internationales à l’horizon 2050. FMSH-Prospective, Fondation Maison des sciences de l’homme, 2020, pp.1-26. ⟨halshs-02616445⟩



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