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Education, neopatrimonialism, and revolutions

Abstract : The occurrence of some revolutionary episodes seems initially puzzling. For example, before the 'Arab Spring', macroeconomic conditions were improving, the political leaders had been in power for a long time, and the autocrats had shown an apparent interest in the welfare of their population by investing in human capital. We argue that such a paradox can be solved by considering that high education levels are incompatible with the features characterising strong neopatrimonial states. We develop this intuition in a simple theoretical model and we test our prediction in a sequential empirical study of regime changes and regime breakdowns in a large panel of countries. We indeed find that a regime change is more likely in countries combining high neopatrimonialism and high education levels. Moreover, when a regime change happens under these circumstances, a revolution is the most likely type of regime breakdown. These results help to understand the 'Arab Spring' but are not specific to the Arab world.
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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02613158
Contributor : Elisabeth Lhuillier <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 - 7:29:28 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, August 26, 2020 - 10:48:11 AM

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  • HAL Id : halshs-02613158, version 1

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Raouf Boucekkine, Rodolphe Desbordes, Paolo Melindi-Ghidi. Education, neopatrimonialism, and revolutions. 2020. ⟨halshs-02613158⟩

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