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Le logement, variable centrale de l’exercice de prospective démographique à l’échelle locale

Abstract : This article presents how the housing variable can be mobilized in demographic projections and thus involve the demographer more in the field of territorial prospective at the local level. In the context of drawing up local urban and/or housing plans, demographers are often asked to determine the demographic changes that the local area might face. In this case housing is considered as a response to demographic projections. But at the local level, the direction of the relationship is reversed: within a catchment area of a few hundred square kilometers, inter-municipal residential mobility is most often determined by real estate opportunities. The small local areas can therefore be, via housing policies, actors in their demographic dynamics. This situation makes housing, at the local level, a central variable in the demographic projection exercise. It also involves renewing methods and mobilizing local planning actors in the definition of scenarios. The demographer is no longer just a service provider and becomes a partner for the territorial prospective at the local level. The prospective exercise is more and more frequently understood as an iterative process that relies on the exchanges between the local actors and experts.
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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02551195
Contributor : Jean-François Leger <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, April 22, 2020 - 5:39:12 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, April 21, 2021 - 4:46:02 PM

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Jean-Francois Léger. Le logement, variable centrale de l’exercice de prospective démographique à l’échelle locale. Revue Quetelet, Presses universitaires de Louvain, 2018, 6 (1), ⟨10.14428/rqj2018.06.01.01⟩. ⟨halshs-02551195⟩

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