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, Appendix 3 -The predictive power of the yield spread Figure 1: The predictive power of the yield curve from, 1999.
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, Yield Spread Notes: This figure plots the yield curves (blue curves), observed and fitted recessions (grey areas and black curves respectively) from 1999 to 2019. Results are estimated using a dynamic logit model. Country-level results indicate that the yield spread signals recessions