Technological changes and population growth: The role of land in England

Claire Loupias (1, 2) , Bertrand Wigniolle (3, 4)

1 EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques
2 TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques
3 PSE - Paris School of Economics
4 PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques

This paper emphasizes the role of land and technological progress in economic and population growth. The model is calibrated using historical data on England concerning both economic growth rate and the factor shares (land, capital, and labor) in total income, as well as mortality tables. It is able to reproduce the dynamics of population since 1760. Moreover, it is possible to disentangle the relative effect of technical changes and mortality fall on the evolution of population. We conduct a counterfactual analysis eliminating successively the increase in life expectancy and the technological bias. With no increase in life expectancy, population would have been respectively 10% and 30% lower in 1910 and in the long run. The figures would have been respectively 40% and 60% lower, with no bias in the technical progress. Finally, population would have been 45% smaller in 1910 and 70% smaller in the long run, neutralizing both the effect of life expectancy and technological bias. So the major part of population increase is due to the technological bias evolution between land and capital.

Mots clés: Land; Endogenous fertility

Domaines: Economies et finances

Claire Loupias, Bertrand Wigniolle. Technological changes and population growth: The role of land in England. Economic Modelling, 2019, 79, pp.198-210. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2018.10.014⟩. ⟨halshs-02103077⟩