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La mesure du futur, les perspectives démographiques

Abstract : The purpose of the demographic outlook is to estimate the state of a population considered over a given time horizon. It is first necessary to distinguish the demographic forecasts and the demographic projections which are differentiated by their temporality and by the unicity - multiplicity opposition. Then, the specificity of the demographic perspectives in relation to those used in other scientific disciplines must be emphasized. It will then be possible to present the methods used in the three cases of perspectives : those that study an open population, those that rely on a closed population, and the derived perspectives. Finally, examples will serve as illustrations to highlight the complexity of measuring the future.
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Contributor : Gérard-François Dumont <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, January 23, 2019 - 7:30:12 PM
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  • HAL Id : halshs-01991443, version 1


Gérard-François Dumont. La mesure du futur, les perspectives démographiques. Démographie. Analyse des populations et démographie économique, Dunod, pp.141-160, 1992, 2-10-001563-X. ⟨halshs-01991443⟩



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