Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Book sections

La mesure du futur, les perspectives démographiques

Abstract : The purpose of the demographic outlook is to estimate the state of a population considered over a given time horizon. It is first necessary to distinguish the demographic forecasts and the demographic projections which are differentiated by their temporality and by the unicity - multiplicity opposition. Then, the specificity of the demographic perspectives in relation to those used in other scientific disciplines must be emphasized. It will then be possible to present the methods used in the three cases of perspectives : those that study an open population, those that rely on a closed population, and the derived perspectives. Finally, examples will serve as illustrations to highlight the complexity of measuring the future.
Complete list of metadatas

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01991443
Contributor : Gérard-François Dumont <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, January 23, 2019 - 7:30:12 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, December 10, 2020 - 10:53:18 AM

File

demographie-perspectives-démo...
Explicit agreement for this submission

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : halshs-01991443, version 1

Citation

Gérard-François Dumont. La mesure du futur, les perspectives démographiques. Démographie. Analyse des populations et démographie économique, Dunod, pp.141-160, 1992, 2-10-001563-X. ⟨halshs-01991443⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

77

Files downloads

42