Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation, Economic Journal, vol.117, pp.603-635, 2007. ,
Are Inflation Expectations Rational?, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.55, issue.2, pp.406-422, 2007. ,
Inattentive Professional Forecasters, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.60, issue.8, pp.967-982, 2013. ,
Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets, or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.54, issue.4, pp.1163-1212, 2007. ,
Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: experimental evidence, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.82, pp.21-43, 2017. ,
Laboratory experiments with an expectational Phillips curve, Evolution and procedures in central banking, pp.23-55, 2003. ,
Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on Their Beliefs?, International Economic Review, vol.56, pp.505-536, 2015. ,
The Price is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment, 2017. ,
Individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior, 2013. ,
Learning, forecasting and optimizing: An experimental study, European Economic Review, vol.61, pp.186-204, 2013. ,
The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy, Bank of Lithuania Working Paper, 2018. ,
Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.118, issue.1, pp.269-298, 2003. ,
What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?, Journal of Political Economy, vol.120, pp.116-159, 2012. ,
Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts, American Economic Review, vol.105, issue.8, pp.2644-78, 2015. ,
The misspecification of expectations in New Keynesian models: A DSGE-VAR approach, Macroeconomic Dynamics, pp.1-34, 2017. ,
Experiments on monetary policy and central banking, vol.17, 2014. ,
Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications, 2019. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01902045
Does inflation targeting matter? An experimental investigation, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol.22, issue.2, pp.362-401, 2018. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01293709
Band or Point Target? An Experimental Study, Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, vol.13, issue.2, pp.283-309, 2018. ,
The Livingstone Survey: Still useful after all these years, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Review, pp.15-27, 1997. ,
Animal spirits and credit cycles, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.59, pp.95-117, 2015. ,
Forecast combination and encompassing: reconciling two divergent literatures, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.5, pp.589-92, 1989. ,
Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Journal of Economic and Business Statistics, vol.13, pp.253-63, 1995. ,
Are Survey Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Central Bank Communication and News, European Economic Review, vol.85, pp.84-111, 2016. ,
Experimental Macroeconomics, New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2008. ,
Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research, Handbook of Experimental Economics, vol.2, pp.1-90, 2016. ,
An experimental test of Taylor-type rules with inexperienced central bankers, Experimental Economics, vol.13, issue.2, pp.146-166, 2010. ,
Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? Evidence from G7 countries, Journal of Forecasting, vol.30, issue.2, pp.268-87, 2011. ,
The weirdest people in the world?, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, vol.33, pp.61-83, 2010. ,
Most people are not WEIRD, Nature, vol.466, issue.7302, p.29, 2010. ,
The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.35, issue.1, pp.1-24, 2011. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00753041
Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments, 2018. ,
Monetary Policy under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment, Bank of Lithuania Working Paper series, p.42, 2017. ,
Two are few and four are many: number effects in experimental oligopolies, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol.53, pp.435-446, 2004. ,
Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation, 2018. ,
Expectations and monetary policy: experimental evidence, Bank of Canada Working Paper, pp.2013-2057, 2013. ,
On the role of heuristics-Experimental evidence on inflation dynamics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.37, issue.6, pp.1213-1229, 2013. ,
A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.33, issue.6, pp.1332-1376, 2009. ,
Inflation illusion and the Taylor principle: An experimental study, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.45, pp.94-110, 2014. ,
Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.117, issue.4, pp.1295-328, 2002. ,
Disagreement about Inflation Expectations, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp.209-257, 2003. ,
Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment, 2018. ,
Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.52, issue.1, pp.124-88, 2014. ,
Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, issue.Summer, pp.17-36, 2002. ,
Pricing decisions in an experimental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium economy, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol.109, pp.188-202, 2015. ,
Forecast Error Information and Heterogenous Expectations in Learning to Forecast Macroeconomic Experiments, vol.17, 2014. ,
Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol.75, issue.3, pp.426-444, 2010. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00849412
Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from the Laboratory, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol.22, issue.4, pp.1035-75, 2018. ,
Is Inflation Sticky?, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.39, pp.173-96, 1997. ,
Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates, American Economic Review, vol.90, pp.429-57, 2000. ,
Implications of Rational Inattention, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.50, pp.665-90, 2003. ,
Survey measures of expected US inflation, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.13, issue.4, pp.125-169, 1999. ,
Experimenter demand effects in economic experiments, Experimental Economics, vol.13, issue.1, pp.75-98, 2010. ,
, *** p < 0.01. P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio n (6) with OLS fo r the full sample perio d fo r survey and central bank fo recasts, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05
N is the size of each sample. Fo r surveys, the fo recasting ho rizo n fo r Livingsto n is 6 or 12 mo nths, fo r M ichigan 1-year, and fo r SP F 1-quarter and 4-quarter. Fo r central bank fo recasts, the ho rizo n is the current and next calendar years fo r ,
, P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio n (6) with OLS. M arketbased fo recasts are co nsidered at a daily or mo nthly frequency, Livingsto n has a semiannual frequency, M ichigan mo nthly, SP F quarterly. FOM C and Greenbo o k are taken at a quarterly frequency. N is the size of each sample. Fo r market-based fo recasts, the fo recasting ho rizo n is 3, 5 and 10 years. Fo r surveys, the ho rizo n fo r Livingsto n is 6 or 12 mo nths, fo r M ichigan 1-year, and fo r SP F 1-quarter and 4-quarter. Fo r central bank fo recasts, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
, P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio n (6) with OLS. M arketbased fo recasts are co nsidered at a daily or mo nthly frequency, Livingsto n has a semiannual frequency, M ichigan mo nthly, SP F quarterly. FOM C and Greenbo o k are taken at a quarterly frequency. N is the size of each sample. Fo r market-based fo recasts, the fo recasting ho rizo n is 3, 5 and 10 years. Fo r surveys, the ho rizo n fo r Livingsto n is 6 or 12 mo nths, fo r M ichigan 1-year, and fo r SP F 1-quarter and 4-quarter. Fo r central bank fo recasts, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
, P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio n (6) with OLS. M arketbased fo recasts are co nsidered at a daily or mo nthly frequency, Livingsto n has a semiannual frequency, M ichigan mo nthly, SP F quarterly. FOM C and Greenbo o k are taken at a quarterly frequency. N is the size of each sample. Fo r market-based fo recasts, the fo recasting ho rizo n is 3, 5 and 10 years. Fo r surveys, the ho rizo n fo r Livingsto n is 6 or 12 mo nths, fo r M ichigan 1-year, and fo r SP F 1-quarter and 4-quarter. Fo r central bank fo recasts, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
, *** p < 0.01. P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio ns (1) to (6) with OLS. The individual data are averaged fo r each gro up in each experiment. N is the size o f each sample, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05
, P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio ns (3) to (6) with OLS and fixed effects, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Experimental data -Including fixed effects Autocorrelation of forecast errors -Equation (3) ,
, Clustered standard erro rs in brackets, at the individual level fo r co lumns 1-2 and 4-6 and at the gro up level fo r co lumn
, *** p < 0.01. P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio ns (1) to (6) with OLS. The individual data are average fo r each gro up in each experiment, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05