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, *** p < 0.01. P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio n (6) with OLS fo r the full sample perio d fo r survey and central bank fo recasts, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05

F. , N is the size of each sample. Fo r surveys, the fo recasting ho rizo n fo r Livingsto n is 6 or 12 mo nths, fo r M ichigan 1-year, and fo r SP F 1-quarter and 4-quarter. Fo r central bank fo recasts, the ho rizo n is the current and next calendar years fo r

, P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio n (6) with OLS. M arketbased fo recasts are co nsidered at a daily or mo nthly frequency, Livingsto n has a semiannual frequency, M ichigan mo nthly, SP F quarterly. FOM C and Greenbo o k are taken at a quarterly frequency. N is the size of each sample. Fo r market-based fo recasts, the fo recasting ho rizo n is 3, 5 and 10 years. Fo r surveys, the ho rizo n fo r Livingsto n is 6 or 12 mo nths, fo r M ichigan 1-year, and fo r SP F 1-quarter and 4-quarter. Fo r central bank fo recasts, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01

, P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio n (6) with OLS. M arketbased fo recasts are co nsidered at a daily or mo nthly frequency, Livingsto n has a semiannual frequency, M ichigan mo nthly, SP F quarterly. FOM C and Greenbo o k are taken at a quarterly frequency. N is the size of each sample. Fo r market-based fo recasts, the fo recasting ho rizo n is 3, 5 and 10 years. Fo r surveys, the ho rizo n fo r Livingsto n is 6 or 12 mo nths, fo r M ichigan 1-year, and fo r SP F 1-quarter and 4-quarter. Fo r central bank fo recasts, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01

, P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio n (6) with OLS. M arketbased fo recasts are co nsidered at a daily or mo nthly frequency, Livingsto n has a semiannual frequency, M ichigan mo nthly, SP F quarterly. FOM C and Greenbo o k are taken at a quarterly frequency. N is the size of each sample. Fo r market-based fo recasts, the fo recasting ho rizo n is 3, 5 and 10 years. Fo r surveys, the ho rizo n fo r Livingsto n is 6 or 12 mo nths, fo r M ichigan 1-year, and fo r SP F 1-quarter and 4-quarter. Fo r central bank fo recasts, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01

, *** p < 0.01. P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio ns (1) to (6) with OLS. The individual data are averaged fo r each gro up in each experiment. N is the size o f each sample, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05

, P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio ns (3) to (6) with OLS and fixed effects, Standard erro rs in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01

N. Table, Experimental data -Including fixed effects Autocorrelation of forecast errors -Equation (3)

, Clustered standard erro rs in brackets, at the individual level fo r co lumns 1-2 and 4-6 and at the gro up level fo r co lumn

, *** p < 0.01. P arameters are o btained by estimating equatio ns (1) to (6) with OLS. The individual data are average fo r each gro up in each experiment, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05