, Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation, Economic Journal, vol.117, pp.603-635, 2007.
, Are Inflation Expectations Rational?, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.55, issue.2, pp.406-422, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2007.07.004
URL : http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0501/0501002.pdf
, Inattentive Professional Forecasters, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.60, issue.8, pp.967-982, 2013.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.1728688
URL : https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2010/paper_1144.pdf
, Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets, or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.54, issue.4, pp.1163-1212, 2007.
DOI : 10.3386/w11538
URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w11538
, Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on Their Beliefs?, International Economic Review, vol.56, pp.505-536, 2015.
DOI : 10.1111/iere.12113
URL : http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/86050/1/Experiment%20Paper%20Oct%203%202014.pdf
, The Price is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment, 2017.
, Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.118, issue.1, pp.269-298, 2003.
DOI : 10.1162/00335530360535207
URL : http://www.econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/EpidemiologyQJE.pdf
, What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?, Journal of Political Economy, vol.120, pp.116-159, 2012.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.1502930
URL : http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/%7Eygorodni/CoibionGorodnichenko.pdf
, Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts, American Economic Review, vol.105, issue.8, pp.2644-78, 2015.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.1704145
URL : http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~ygorodni/CG_expform.pdf
, Experiments on monetary policy and central banking, vol.17, 2014.
DOI : 10.1108/s0193-230620140000017006
, Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications", prepared for the Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics, 2018.
, Does inflation targeting matter? An experimental investigation, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol.22, issue.2, pp.362-401, 2018.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.2346203
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01293709
, Band or Point Target? An Experimental Study, Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, 2016.
, The Livingstone Survey: Still useful after all these years, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Review, pp.15-27, 1997.
, Forecast combination and encompassing: reconciling two divergent literatures, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.5, pp.589-92, 1989.
, Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Journal of Economic and Business Statistics, vol.13, pp.253-63, 1995.
, Are Survey Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Central Bank Communication and News, European Economic Review, vol.85, pp.84-111, 2016.
, Experimental Macroeconomics, New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2008.
, Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research, Handbook of Experimental Economics, vol.2, pp.1-90, 2016.
, Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? Evidence from G7 countries, Journal of Forecasting, vol.30, issue.2, pp.268-87, 2011.
, The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.35, issue.1, pp.1-24, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00753041
, Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments, 2018.
, Monetary Policy under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment, Bank of Lithuania Working Paper series, p.42, 2017.
, Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation, 2018.
, A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.33, issue.6, pp.1332-1376, 2009.
, Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.117, issue.4, pp.1295-328, 2002.
, Disagreement about Inflation Expectations, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp.209-257, 2003.
, Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.52, issue.1, pp.124-88, 2014.
, Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol.88, issue.Summer, pp.17-36, 2002.
, Forecast Error Information and Heterogenous Expectations in Learning to Forecast Macroeconomic Experiments, vol.17, 2014.
, Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol.75, issue.3, pp.426-444, 2010.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00849412
, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from the Laboratory, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol.22, issue.4, pp.1035-75, 2018.
, Is Inflation Sticky?, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.39, pp.173-96, 1997.
, Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates, American Economic Review, vol.90, pp.429-57, 2000.
, Implications of Rational Inattention, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.50, pp.665-90, 2003.
, Survey measures of expected US inflation, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.13, issue.4, pp.125-169, 1999.
, Experimenter demand effects in economic experiments, Experimental Economics, vol.13, issue.1, pp.75-98, 2010.
, For surveys, the forecasting horizon for Livingston is 6 or 12 months, for Michigan 1-year, and for SPF 1-quarter and 4-quarter. For central bank forecasts, the horizon is the current and next calendar years for FOMC and 1-quarter and 4-quarter for Greenbook, Note: Standard errors in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01, 2008.
, Note: Standard errors in brackets. * p < 0.10. ** p < 0.05. *** p < 0.01. Parameters are obtained by estimating with OLS the following equation: FE t.t+h = í µí° ¶ í µí°» + í µí»½ í µí°»1 í µí¼‹ t+h/t ???????? + í µí»½ í µí°»2 í µí¼‹ t+h?1/t?1
, for the different categories of economic agents) and the null hypothesis is: the estimated coefficients í µí»½ í µí°»1 and í µí»½ í µí°»2 ?are not significantly different from 0. Market-based forecasts are considered at a daily or monthly frequency. Livingston has a semiannual frequency. Michigan monthly. SPF quarterly. FOMC and Greenbook are taken at a quarterly frequency. N is the size of each sample. For experimental data: PZ indicates data from Pfajfar and Zakelj, ????????????? + í µí¼– í µí±–í µí±¡. where í µí»½ í µí°»1 and í µí»½ í µí°»2 are the estimated coefficients. í µí° ¶ í µí°» is a constant. í µí¼– í µí±–í µí±¡ is the error term (i stands, p.33, 2008.
, Parameters are obtained by estimating equation (6) with OLS, when considering the unemployment gap instead of the output gap. Market-based forecasts are considered at a daily or monthly frequency, Livingston has a semiannual frequency, Michigan monthly, SPF quarterly. FOMC and Greenbook are taken at a quarterly frequency. N is the size of each sample. For market-based forecasts, the forecasting horizon is 3, 5 and 10 years. For surveys, the horizon for Livingston is 6 or 12 months, for Michigan 1-year, and for SPF 1-quarter and 4-quarter, Note: Standard errors in brackets. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01