Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes

Abstract : Under the threat of earthquakes, long-term policy makers need tools to decide optimally on the economic trajectories that maximize the society welfare. Tools should be flexible and account for the consequences of earthquakes, incorporating the best estimate of their frequency and intensity. In this regard, we propose in this paper a modeling strategy that combines optimal control techniques and Bayesian learning: after an earthquake occurs, policy makers can improve their knowledge and adjust policies optimally. Two numerical examples illustrate the advantages of our modelling strategy along different dimensions. While Japan symbolizes the policy maker who has learned from earthquakes protecting the economy accordingly; Italy helps us illustrate the importance of prevention capital.
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Pré-publication, Document de travail
PSE Working Papers n°2017-60. 2017
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Soumis le : jeudi 21 décembre 2017 - 14:23:36
Dernière modification le : mardi 24 avril 2018 - 17:20:16

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  • HAL Id : halshs-01670507, version 1

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Carmen Camacho, Yu Sun. Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes. PSE Working Papers n°2017-60. 2017. 〈halshs-01670507〉

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