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Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach

Abstract : How can several individuals' probability functions on a given-algebra of events be aggregated into a collective probability function? Classic approaches to this problem usually require 'event-wise independence': the collective probability for each event should depend only on the individuals' probabilities for that event. In practice, however, some events may be 'basic' and others 'derivative', so that it makes sense first to aggregate the probabilities for the former and then to let these constrain the probabilities for the latter. We formalize this idea by introducing a 'premise-based' approach to probabilistic opinion pooling, and show that, under a variety of assumptions, it leads to linear or neutral opinion pooling on the 'premises'.
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Contributor : Franz Dietrich <>
Submitted on : Thursday, March 9, 2017 - 1:52:16 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, December 2, 2020 - 3:22:26 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Saturday, June 10, 2017 - 2:06:15 PM


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  • HAL Id : halshs-01485767, version 1


Franz Dietrich, Christian List. Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach. Social Choice and Welfare, Springer Verlag, 2017, 48 (4), pp.787-814. ⟨halshs-01485767⟩



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