| Format du dépôt |
Fichier |
| Type de dépôt |
Pré-publication, Document de travail |
| Titre |
en
Episodes of War and Peace in an Estimated Open Economy Model
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| Résumé |
en
We analyze the effects of world wars on the macroeconomic dynamics of the U.S., France, Germany, and the UK, by means of an estimated open-economy model. The model allows wars to affect the economy through capital depreciation, sovereign default, a military draft, household preferences, and spillovers on other exogenous processes (productivity, investment, trade, policy variables). If the bulk of fluctuations during war episodes can be explained by the rise in government spending in the U.S., other factors are crucial in other countries. We also discuss the size and state-dependence of public spending multipliers, and a counterfactual welfare exercise.
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Auteur(s)
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Stéphane Auray
1
, Aurélien Eyquem
2
1
CREST -
Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique
( 2579 )
- 5, Avenue Henry Le Chatelier
91120 Palaiseau
- France
-
Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] ( 244399 )
;
-
École polytechnique ( 300340 )
;
-
École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique ( 300604 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR 9194 ( 441569 )
2
GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne -
Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne
( 102550 )
- 93, chemin des Mouilles 69130 Écully
6, rue Basse des Rives 42023 Saint-Étienne cedex 02
- France
-
École normale supérieure de Lyon ( 6818 )
;
-
Université Lumière - Lyon 2 ( 33804 )
;
-
Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 ( 194495 )
;
-
Université de Lyon ( 301088 )
;
-
Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne ( 300284 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR5824 ( 441569 )
|
| Langue du document |
Anglais
|
| Date de production/écriture |
2017
|
| Domaine(s) |
-
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
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| Mots-clés (JEL) |
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E31 - Price Level • Inflation • Deflation
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E62 - Fiscal Policy
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F - International Economics/F.F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance/F.F4.F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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H - Public Economics/H.H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies/H.H5.H56 - National Security and War
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H - Public Economics/H.H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt/H.H6.H63 - Debt • Debt Management • Sovereign Debt
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| Référence interne |
-
Working paper GATE 2017-08
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| Mots-clés |
en
Fluctuations, War, Trade, Taxes, Public Debt, Bayesian estimations, Multipliers, Welfare
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