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Article Dans Une Revue French Politics Année : 2012

Forecasting the extreme-right vote at the 2012 presidential election: Evaluating our model

Gilles Ivaldi
Jocelyn A.J. Evans
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Résumé

This article evaluates our structural model forecasting the Extreme-Right vote in France since the mid-1970s and reflects upon its performance in 2012. We discuss the implications of the stability of the national-level specification of the model, as well as the limitations imposed by the availability and definition of some of the macro indicators used as predictors. Although empirically accurate in 2012, there are a number of unknowns in the model's likely fortunes for future elections, in particular, whether the ‘Marine effect’ observable in 2012 will translate into core party support, and the extent to which a party ‘normalisation’ strategy will affect its 2017 performance.
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Dates et versions

halshs-01385823 , version 1 (22-10-2016)

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Gilles Ivaldi, Jocelyn A.J. Evans. Forecasting the extreme-right vote at the 2012 presidential election: Evaluating our model. French Politics, 2012, 10 (4), pp.378-382. ⟨10.1057/fp.2012.17⟩. ⟨halshs-01385823⟩

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