Out-migration and economic cycles
Rémi Bazillier
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 9938
- IdHAL : remi-bazillier
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6106-3484
- IdRef : 080604854
Francesco Magris
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 950667
Daniel Mirza
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 938164
Résumé
Out-migration concerns foreigners who decide to leave a country where they used to live. Taking advantage of the OECD bilateral IMS database, we analyze the short-run determinants of out-migration using a panel of Schengen countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that out-migration is counter-cyclical: foreign nationals tend to leave host countries with high unemployment, while they are likelier to stay in good times (i.e. low unemployment). Typically, a 10 % increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 5 % increase in out-migration. Thus, short-term economic fluctuations have the same qualitative effect as restrictive migration policies in economic downturns. However, we find mixed evidence for the role of economic cycles in the potential destination countries of those flows. Movers appear to be sensitive to unemployment changes in their country of origin, but they do not seem to be sensitive to business cycles in potential destinations.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Résumé |
en
Out-migration concerns foreigners who decide to leave a country where they used to live. Taking advantage of the OECD bilateral IMS database, we analyze the short-run determinants of out-migration using a panel of Schengen countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that out-migration is counter-cyclical: foreign nationals tend to leave host countries with high unemployment, while they are likelier to stay in good times (i.e. low unemployment). Typically, a 10 % increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 5 % increase in out-migration. Thus, short-term economic fluctuations have the same qualitative effect as restrictive migration policies in economic downturns. However, we find mixed evidence for the role of economic cycles in the potential destination countries of those flows. Movers appear to be sensitive to unemployment changes in their country of origin, but they do not seem to be sensitive to business cycles in potential destinations.
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Titre |
en
Out-migration and economic cycles
|
Auteur(s) |
Rémi Bazillier
1, 2
, Francesco Magris
3, 2
, Daniel Mirza
2, 4, 3
1
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
2
LEO -
Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322]
( 199945 )
- Université d'Orléans - UFR Droit Economie Gestion - Rue de Blois - BP 26739 - 45067 ORLÉANS Cedex 2
- France
3
UT -
Université de Tours
( 300298 )
- 60 rue du Plat d'Étain, 37020 Tours cedex 1
- France
4
CEPII -
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales
( 39083 )
- 9 rue Georges Pitard - 75740 Paris Cedex 15
- France
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Langue du document |
Anglais
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Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2017
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Date de publication électronique |
2016-09-24
|
Volume |
153
|
Numéro |
1
|
Page/Identifiant |
39-69
|
URL éditeur |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10290-016-0267-8?wt_mc=Internal.Event.1.SEM.ArticleAuthorOnlineFirst
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Mots-clés (JEL) |
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Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Business cycle, Migration Outflows
|
DOI | 10.1007/s10290-016-0267-8 |
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