Explaining international trade flows with shipping-based distances

David Guerrero (1) , Grasland Claude , César Ducruet (2)

1 IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail
2 GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités

In this chapter we use a spatial interaction model to measure the influence of the frequency of containerised shipping services on trade flows. Our hypothesis is that the frequency containerised services combined with distance provide a better explanation of trade flows than the single distance. Homogeneous databases on world trade and on the movements of container ships are used. To compare the explanatory power of the two measures, a doubly constrained spatial interaction model has been used. Our results show that shipping services alone do not provide a better explanation of the geographical pattern of trade flows than distance. However, when taken together with distance the explanatory power of the model is considerably improved. This seems to indicate that the existence of frequent containerised services between countries is a major determinant of trade.

Mots clés: spatial interaction; gravity model; international trade; maritime transport

Domaines: Géographie

David Guerrero, Grasland Claude, César Ducruet. Explaining international trade flows with shipping-based distances. César Ducruet. Maritime Networks. Spatial Structures and Time Dynamics, Routledge Studies in Transport Analysis, pp.303-321, 2015, 9781138911253. ⟨halshs-01374948⟩