The European crisis and migration to Germany
Simone Bertoli
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 171478
- IdHAL : simonebertoli
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6512-0834
- IdRef : 226856003
Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 770219
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5489-2743
Résumé
The size of migration flows to Germany from other European countries surged in the aftermath of the 2010
European crisis, and this paper explores the main determinants of this large increase. International migrants
tend to move more than once in their lives, and migration episodes to Germany make no exception in this
respect. This paper explores some relevant implications of this simple observation for the estimation of
gravity models, which is done here with bilateral monthly migration data. We demonstrate that ignoring
the sequential nature of migration decisions gives rise to multilateral resistance to migration, thus substantially
biasing the estimates. We also show that the expectations about future economic conditions at origin
significantly influence bilateral migration flows to Germany.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
The European crisis and migration to Germany
|
Résumé |
en
The size of migration flows to Germany from other European countries surged in the aftermath of the 2010
European crisis, and this paper explores the main determinants of this large increase. International migrants
tend to move more than once in their lives, and migration episodes to Germany make no exception in this
respect. This paper explores some relevant implications of this simple observation for the estimation of
gravity models, which is done here with bilateral monthly migration data. We demonstrate that ignoring
the sequential nature of migration decisions gives rise to multilateral resistance to migration, thus substantially
biasing the estimates. We also show that the expectations about future economic conditions at origin
significantly influence bilateral migration flows to Germany.
|
Auteur(s) |
Simone Bertoli
1
, Herbert Brücker
2
, Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga
3
1
CERDI -
Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International
( 490669 )
- Pôle tertiaire, 26 avenue Léon Blum, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand
- France
2
IAB -
Institute for Advanced Biosciences / Institut pour l'Avancée des Biosciences (Grenoble)
( 1043222 )
- Institut pour l'Avancée des Biosciences
Centre de Recherche UGA / Inserm U 1209 / CNRS UMR 5309
Site Santé - Allée des Alpes
38700 La Tronche
- France
3
UC3M -
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid]
( 45695 )
- Calle Madrid 126, 28903 Getafe, Madrid
- Espagne
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2016-09
|
Volume |
60
|
Page/Identifiant |
61 - 72
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Projet(s) ANR |
|
Mots-clés |
en
International migration Multiple destinations Dynamic discrete choice model Expectations
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.06.012 |
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