Interdependencies between Atlantic and Pacific agreements: Evidence from agri-food sectors

Anne-Célia Disdier (1, 2) , Charlotte Emlinger (3) , Jean Fouré (3)

1 PSE - Paris School of Economics
2 PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques
3 CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales

Trade liberalization of the agri-food sector is a sensitive topic in both Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) discussions. This article provides an overview of current trade flows and trade barriers. Then, using a general equilibrium model of international trade (the MIRAGE model), it assesses the potential impact of these two agreements on agri-food trade and production. The results suggest that the US agri-food sectors would gain from both agreements while almost all their partners and third countries would benefit less, and might register losses in some sectors. However, the two agreements are not competing, since all the contracting parties' interests are complementary. Finally, we show that the Atlantic trade may be impacted by the inclusion of harmonized standards within the Pacific agreement but not by its extension to additional members (e.g. China or India).

Mots clés: Trans-Pacific Partnership; Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; Mega-trade deals; Agri-food; CGE model

Domaines: Economies et finances

Anne-Célia Disdier, Charlotte Emlinger, Jean Fouré. Interdependencies between Atlantic and Pacific agreements: Evidence from agri-food sectors. Economic Modelling, 2016, 55, pp.241-253. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.011⟩. ⟨halshs-01311487⟩