Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration - HAL-SHS - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Climatic Change Année : 2016

Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration

Résumé

Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis. However, in the great majority of studies with a handful of scenarios or scenario categories, both scenario developers and users capture only a subset of future uncertainties. We propose three focal points for reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration: (1) to ensure that scenario developers embrace an increased space of multidimensional uncertainties, (2) to facilitate the process of scenario users capturing this space, and (3) to evaluate and iteratively revise the improvement progress. If these focal points are adopted, scenario studies in climate and energy analysis shall not simply stop after producing scenarios, but shall continue with techniques to facilitate elicitation of user-specific insights, as well as evaluation of both scenarios and scenario techniques

Mots clés

Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Trutnevyte et al_2016_scenarios_uncertainty_postprint.pdf (393.97 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

halshs-01290284 , version 1 (17-04-2018)

Identifiants

Citer

Evelina Trutnevyte, Céline Guivarch, Robert Lempert, Neil Strachan. Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration. Climatic Change, 2016, 135 (3-4), pp.373-379. ⟨10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x⟩. ⟨halshs-01290284⟩
173 Consultations
347 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More