Adapt or Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

Warren E Walker (1, 2)

1 Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
2 Faculty of Aerospace Engineering [Delft]

Much policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or a static ‘robust’ policy is developed that will produce acceptable outcomes in a range of plausible future worlds. However, if the future turns out to be different from the hypothesized future(s), the policy might fail. Furthermore, not only is the future highly uncertain, the conditions policymakers need to deal with are changing over time. This paper begins by defining what is meant by ‘deep uncertainty’. It then describes a new approach for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty that is based on creating a strategic vision of the future, committing to short-term actions, and establishing a framework to guide future actions. A policy that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet the changing circumstances.

Mots clés: deep uncertainty; robust decision making; adaptive policies; adaptation pathways; exploratory modeling and analysis

Domaines: Gestion et management; Sciences de l'information et de la communication

Warren E Walker. Adapt or Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty. Incertitude et connaissances en SHS : production, diffusion, transfert, Maison des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société Sud-Est (MSHS) - Axe 4 : Territoires, systèmes techniques et usages sociaux, Jun 2014, Nice, France. ⟨halshs-01166279⟩