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Projection des changements climatiques futurs

Abstract : Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21st century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise.We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryosphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects.
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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01124443
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Submitted on : Wednesday, November 25, 2020 - 11:01:54 AM
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Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Jessica Vial, Éric Brun, Julien Cattiaux, et al.. Projection des changements climatiques futurs. La Météorologie, Météo et Climat, 2015, numéro spécial climat, 88, pp.56-67. ⟨10.4267/2042/56362⟩. ⟨halshs-01124443⟩

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