MUDANCAS CLIMÁTICAS E SECAS: MODELAGEM ESPACIAL E DESAFIOS PARA A AGRICULTURA NA BRETANHA

Abstract : ABSTRACT. Great droughts of the past (such as 1959, 1976, 1989 or 2003) have had heavy impacts on important socio-economical activities for the economy of the Brittany, such as agriculture. In a climate change context it seems important to evaluate the possible ways of evolution of that risk in this region. These evolutions have been studied by using climate simulations from three IPCC’s scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. In order to monitor droughts, the methodology used is a soil water balance and the implementation of the evaporation deficit. Results revealed an increase of drought intensity during the 21st century, more specifically in the eastern part of the region. The south coastline would be the most sensitive area in terms of droughts’ intensity and frequency. In that area a similar intensity as the one measured during the 1976 drought, other things being equal, would be frequently reached. Exceptional past droughts could become common in the future, impacting both agriculture and water cycle. This could cause a decreasing in runoff aquifer's levels and force farmers to adapt both crops and cropping methods.
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Chloé Lamy, Vincent Dubreuil, Neli de Mello Théry. MUDANCAS CLIMÁTICAS E SECAS: MODELAGEM ESPACIAL E DESAFIOS PARA A AGRICULTURA NA BRETANHA. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, Associação Brasileira de Climatologia – ABClima, 2014, 14, pp.97-113. ⟨halshs-01075231⟩

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