Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events.

Nathalie Verdière (1) , Valentina Lanza (1) , Rodolphe Charrier (2) , Damienne Provitolo (3) , Edwige Dubos-Paillard (4) , Cyrille Bertelle (2) , Aziz Alaoui (1)

1 LMAH - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Appliquées du Havre
2 LITIS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, de Traitement de l'Information et des Systèmes
3 GEOAZUR 7329 - Géoazur
4 GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for modeling the human collective behaviors in the specific scenario of a sudden catastrophe, this catastrophe can be natural (i.e. earthquake, tsunami) or technological (nuclear event). The novelty of our work is to propose a mathematical model taking into account different concurrent behaviors in such situation and to include the processes of transition from one behavior to the other during the event. Thus, in this multidisciplinary research included mathematicians, computer scientists and geographers, we take into account the psychological reactions of the population in situations of disasters, and study their propagation mode. We propose a SIR-based model, where three types of collective reactions occur in catastrophe situations: reflex, panic and controlled behaviors. Moreover, we suppose that the interactions among these classes of population can be realized through imitation and emotional contagion processes. Some simulations will attest the relevance of the proposed model.

Keywords: Modeling; catastrophic event; human behavior

Domains: Dynamical Systems [math.DS]; Geography

Nathalie Verdière, Valentina Lanza, Rodolphe Charrier, Damienne Provitolo, Edwige Dubos-Paillard, et al.. Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events.. 4th International Conference on Complex Systems and Applications (ICCSA2014), Jun 2014, Le Havre, France. pp.67-74. ⟨hal-00992945⟩