La méthode des scénarios appliquée aux territoires. L'exemple de l'avenir de la filière Betterave-Sucre de Picardie.

Gaëlle Kotbi 1 Gudule Kisempa Muyuala 1 Loic Sauvee 2
2 PICAR-T
LaSalle Beauvais - Institut Polytechnique LaSalle Beauvais
Abstract : The report is based on the work on a "Prospective Diagnostic of the Sugar Beet Industry in Picardy" (DiProBe) for the Conseil Régional de Picardie (2007-2010). The goal of this project was to analyze and understand the factors affecting production dynamics in the sugar beet industry in Picardy, to propose a diagnosis, and to develop scenarios for the future, in the context of major industry restructuring following the reform of the CMO for sugar in 2006. This last step, which will be the focus of this report, led to three scenarios for development up until 2020. These scenarios will guide industry players and policymakers in their reflections by adapting the scenario method used by the École Française de Prospective. This six-step method is a collective contemplation of changes in the strategic environment and informs decision-makers by helping them to discover the prevailing trends, the areas of major uncertainty, the main risks, the challenges they may be exposed to, and the strategies that could be adopted, with their respective pros and cons (Godet, 2007). Observations in the present made with the active participation of various industry stakeholders led to the creation of a matrix representations, which allows the scenarios to propose an image of the system being studied within a defined timeframe and according to the hypotheses dealing with changes in certain key variables. After describing the method applied, we will present the three scenarios under consideration: a "trending" scenario, which continues along the same path currently being followed; an "environmental policy for all" scenario, which will revolve around climate, environmental, and food considerations; and a "free and competitive market" scenario, which will have as its core hypothesis that markets should be fully open. We will conclude by putting into perspective our adaptation of this method and the difficulties we were faced with. This strategic planning method has a "toolbox" form, which allows for a global approach combining the quantitative and the qualitative. This makes it easier to adapt how it is applied to territorial planning based on different organizational, budgetary, and time restrictions. Because it is systemic, it has the advantage of requiring the players themselves to participate in developing scenarios for the future. For each scenario considered, a strategy can be identified that either will help it to be executed or not, or will deal with it. This method is therefore a decision-making tool for uncertain situations. Its construction is really a study of the environment of the case being considered.
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Gaëlle Kotbi, Gudule Kisempa Muyuala, Loic Sauvee. La méthode des scénarios appliquée aux territoires. L'exemple de l'avenir de la filière Betterave-Sucre de Picardie.. 1ère Conférence Intercontinentale d'Intelligence Territoriale "Interdisciplinarité dans l'aménagement et développement des territoires", Oct 2011, Gatineau, Canada. pp.11. ⟨halshs-00960454⟩

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