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" Nouveau " FN, vieille carte électorale ? : Les territoires du vote pour le Front national de 1995 à 2002

Abstract : Beyond the level reached by the vote for Marine Le Pen at the first round of the 2012 presidential election, it is its structure, and its alleged evolutions, which were the subject of many commentaries. With a new Front National should come a new electoral map, they suggested. A larger reach of the FN in suburban territories as well as in the Ouest were largely noted, thus sketching an electoral geography opposed to the former urban and Eastern electoral map of the Front. In order to assess the validity of this Frontist renewal narrative, one must put the 2012 results in historic perspective. One should also analyse both the FN vote's level and structure evolutions. For that purpose, a multilevel growth model is used, with the 1995, 2002, 2007 and 2012 presidential elections canton-level returns. This allows to measure the evolutions of the geographical structure of the FN vote during that time span, as well as of its underlying social structure. The hypothesis is that, far from a radical novelty, the FN vote in 2012 is better understood as part of long term evolutions, explained by the transformations.
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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00849332
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Submitted on : Tuesday, July 30, 2013 - 5:03:34 PM
Last modification on : Friday, October 8, 2021 - 4:28:05 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, April 5, 2017 - 6:18:18 PM

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Joël Gombin. " Nouveau " FN, vieille carte électorale ? : Les territoires du vote pour le Front national de 1995 à 2002. Congrès de l'Association française de science politique, Jul 2013, Paris, France. ⟨halshs-00849332⟩

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