Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade?

Abstract : In this paper we address the following question: would a fully integrated world economy eliminate the widely reported decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities? We address the question by looking at the terms of trade within the US (a highly integrated economy). Our findings show two results. First, US internal real commodities' terms of trade over the 1947-1998 period experienced slowly declining but significant trends. Second, once we control for the effect of US prices on international terms of trade, we find a long-run relationship between the US and international relative prices. These findings support the view that the decline of commodities' terms of trade bears no relationship with the process of globalisation. This seems to indicate that, if world terms of trade behaved as the US terms of trade, neither increased integration nor protectionist measures would eliminate this trend.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadata
Contributor : Pedro Albuquerque <>
Submitted on : Sunday, October 28, 2012 - 4:03:46 PM
Last modification on : Friday, July 17, 2020 - 8:56:59 AM

Links full text




André Mollick, João Faria, Pedro Albuquerque, Miguel León-Ledesma. Can Globalisation Stop the Decline in Commodities' Terms of Trade?. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2008, 32 (5), pp.683-701. ⟨10.1093/cje/bem054⟩. ⟨halshs-00746269⟩



Record views