Transformative targets in sustainability policy making: the case of the 30% EU mitigation goal

J. David Tabara (1) , Diana Mangalagiu (2) , Roland Kupers (3) , C. Jaeger (4) , Antoine Mandel (5, 6) , Leonidas Paroussos (7)

1 ICTA - Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambientals
2 RMS - Reims Management School
3 Smithschool of Enterprise and the Environment
4 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
5 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
6 PSE - Paris School of Economics
7 NTUA - National Technical University of Athens [Athens]

This paper explores to what extent moving towards the 30% GHG emission reductions by 2020 with respect to 1990 in the EU can be considered a transformative target. To do so, we first define the concept of transformative targets from a complex systems perspective and show a novel approach and original results using an extended application of the GEM-E3 model. Traditional macroeconomic models cannot easily handle key synergetic system effects derived from green growth and sustainability policies, and thus require additional features. We analyse the role of semi-endogenous growth driven by learning-by-doing and low-carbon investment expectations following a long-term transformative trajectory.

Mots clés: EU climate policy; system attractors; macroeconomic modelling; sustainability

Domaines: Economies et finances

J. David Tabara, Diana Mangalagiu, Roland Kupers, C. Jaeger, Antoine Mandel, et al.. Transformative targets in sustainability policy making: the case of the 30% EU mitigation goal. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2013, 56 (8), pp.1180-1191. ⟨10.1080/09640568.2012.716365⟩. ⟨halshs-00744937⟩