P. J. Richardson and . Green, Contribution to the discussion of paper by S, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, vol.59, p.766, 1997.

T. Adrian and S. Shin, Financial Intermediaries, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2008.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.1266714

A. Bhatia, Sovereign Credit Rating Methodology, IMF Working Paper n. 03, 2002.

B. Bernanke, The Global Savings Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit, Remarks at the Virginia Association of Economists, 2005.

C. Borio and H. Zhu, Capital Regulation, risk taking and monetary policy: a missing link in the transmission mechanism, BIS Working Paper, issue.268, 2008.

R. Caballero, E. Farhi, and P. O. Gourinchas, An Equilibrium Model of ???Global Imbalances??? and Low Interest Rates, American Economic Review, vol.98, issue.1, pp.358-393, 2008.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.98.1.358

O. Canuto, S. , and P. F. , Dos. Risco? Soberano e Prèmios de Risco em Economias Emergentes Temas de Economia International, Secretaria de Assuntos Internacionais, Brazilian Ministry of Finance, pp.1-43, 2003.

V. Cerra and S. C. Saxena, Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery, American Economic Review, vol.98, issue.1, pp.439-457, 2008.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.98.1.439

S. Claessens, C. Pazarbasioglu, L. Laeven, M. Dobler, F. Valencia et al., Crisis Management and Resolution: Early Lessons from the Financial Crisis, IMF staff Discussion Note, 2011.

R. Chang and A. Velasco, Financial Crises in Emerging Markets, NBER Working Paper N, vol.6606, 1998.
DOI : 10.3386/w6606

B. Das, S. Resnick, and I. , QQ plots, random sets and data from a heavy tailed distribution Stochastic Models, 2008.

N. Day, Estimating the components of a mixture of normal distributions, Biometrika, vol.56, issue.3, 1969.
DOI : 10.1093/biomet/56.3.463

P. Deb, Finite Mixiture Model Summer North American Stata User' Group Meeting, 2008.

R. P. Flood and P. M. Garber, Collapsing exchange-rate regimes, Journal of International Economics, vol.17, issue.1-2, 1984.
DOI : 10.1016/0022-1996(84)90002-3

J. A. Frankel and A. K. Rose, Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment, Journal of International Economics, vol.41, issue.3-4, pp.351-366, 1996.
DOI : 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01441-9

F. Ratings, Sovereign Rating Methodology Nova York: Fitch Ratings ago, Criteria Report), p.16, 1998.

`. O. Jordà, . Schularick, and A. M. Taylor, Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons, Monetary Fund Paper presented at the 11th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/S0261-5606(02)00020-7

M. Jordan and L. Xu, An Alternative Model for Mixtures of Experts, 1995.

G. L. Kaminsky and C. M. Reinhart, The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems, American Economic Review, vol.89, issue.3, pp.473-500, 1999.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.89.3.473

P. Krugman, A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.11, issue.3, 1979.
DOI : 10.2307/1991793

P. Krugman, Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises, International Tax and Public Finance, 1999.
DOI : 10.1007/978-94-011-4004-1_2

P. R. Lane, ?. Milesi, and G. M. Ferretti, The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970???2004, Journal of International Economics, vol.73, issue.2, pp.223-250, 1970.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.02.003

L. Laeven and F. V. Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database, IMF Economic Review, vol.102, issue.2, 2008.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.102.2.1029

V. Melnykov and R. Maitra, Finite mixture models and model-based clustering, Statistics Surveys, vol.4, issue.0, 2010.
DOI : 10.1214/09-SS053
URL : http://doi.org/10.1214/09-ss053

O. Merrouche and E. Nier, What Caused the Global Financial Crisis? Evidence on the drivers of financial Imbalances, 1999.

G. Mclachlan and D. Peel, Finite Mixture Models, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Applied Probability and Statistics Section, 2000.
DOI : 10.1002/0471721182

M. Obstfeld, The logic of currency crises, Cahiers Economiques et Monetaires, 1994.

K. Pearson, Contributions to the Mathematical Theory of Evolution, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol.185, issue.0, pp.71-110, 1894.
DOI : 10.1098/rsta.1894.0003

K. Pearson, Contributions to the Mathematical Theory of Evolution. II. Skew Variation in Homogeneous Material, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol.186, issue.0, pp.343-414, 1895.
DOI : 10.1098/rsta.1895.0010

C. Reinhart and V. Reinhart, Capital Flow Bonanzas: An encompassing View of the Past and Present, 2008.

C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly, 2009.

C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, Growth in a time of debt " NBER Working Paper Series w15639, 1938.

C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, From financial crash to debt crisis " NBER Working Paper Series w15795, 2010.
DOI : 10.3386/w15795
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.360.5163

D. J. Sachs, A. Tornell, A. Velasco, G. A. Calvo, and R. N. Cooper, Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol.1996, issue.1, pp.147-215, 1995.
DOI : 10.2307/2534648

M. Tudela, Explaining currency crises: a duration model approach, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.23, issue.5, pp.799-816, 1939.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2004.03.011
URL : http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/20133/1/Explaining_Currency_Crises_A_Duration_Model_Approach.pdf