Do countries falsify economic data strategically? Some evidence that they might.

Tomasz Michalski 1, * Gilles Stoltz 1, 2, 3
* Auteur correspondant
3 CLASSIC - Computational Learning, Aggregation, Supervised Statistical, Inference, and Classification
DMA - Département de Mathématiques et Applications - ENS Paris, ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris, Inria Paris-Rocquencourt
Abstract : Using Benford's Law, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their economic data strategically. We group countries with similar economic conditions and find that for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions, negative current account balances or more vulnerable to capital flow reversals we reject the first-digit law for the balance of payments data. This corroborates the intuition of a simple economic model. The main results do not seem to be driven by countries in Sub-Saharan Africa or those with low institutional quality ratings.
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [6 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00482106
Contributeur : Gilles Stoltz <>
Soumis le : vendredi 15 juillet 2011 - 13:55:24
Dernière modification le : mardi 2 avril 2019 - 14:15:39
Document(s) archivé(s) le : dimanche 16 octobre 2011 - 02:21:19

Fichier

Cheating-HAL.pdf
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

Citation

Tomasz Michalski, Gilles Stoltz. Do countries falsify economic data strategically? Some evidence that they might.. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 95 (2), pp.591-616. ⟨10.1162/REST_a_00274⟩. ⟨halshs-00482106v3⟩

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

1755

Téléchargements de fichiers

4849