Forecasting the Extreme Right Vote in France (1984–2007)

Gilles Ivaldi (1) , Jocelyn A.J. Evans (2)

1 URMIS - Unite de recherche migrations et sociétés
2 University of Salford

This article identifies an issue model forecasting Extreme Right results in France between 1984 and 2007. Building upon the VP-function literature, this article looks at developing a model of electoral support for the Front National and Jean-Marie Le Pen, based upon the key political issues that are seen as motivating votes for this party: unemployment, crime and immigration. Controlling for political context through election type and opposition popularity, we find that the vote is linked to variation in macro-indicators of these issues and that consequently the Extreme Right vote in France is far from unpredictable, as some analyses have previously suggested.

Mots clés: Extreme Right; election forecasting; economic models; VP function

Mots clés: extrême-droite; prédiction; modèles économiques; fonction VP

Domaines: Science politique

Gilles Ivaldi, Jocelyn A.J. Evans. Forecasting the Extreme Right Vote in France (1984–2007). French Politics, 2008, 6 (2), pp.137-151. ⟨10.1057/fp.2008.1⟩. ⟨halshs-00320684⟩